As a business owner and investor, one of the most dangerous places to be is in an echo chamber. The problem is obvious: No conflicting Points of View, challenging of ideas, or analysis of possible second-order consequences. The Pros all know it is critical to get conflicting points of view before making important decisions. The possibility of making a mistake goes up exponentially without it. (It’s impossible to see the frame when you are in the picture.)
In some of my recent reading and Thinking Times, the trajectory of AI has hit my radar. The impact of AI is becoming increasingly obvious and probably transformational for most of us… Exciting times we live in, right? But what are the possible second, third, and fourth-order consequences that most of us haven’t thought about?
I have a strong suggestion/assignment for you. It will require a couple of hours of your time, but the juice will be worth the squeeze, I promise!
1. You need to read: The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis (A Thought Exercise in Financial History, from the Future). This paper/PDF is 45 pages long and will take you about 45 minutes to read and digest. It is spellbinding and incredibly logical and well presented… and it is scary! This is not conspiracy stuff… Just a possibility of potential outcomes. When I finished reading it, I needed to have it summarized so I could get the high points.
2. I loaded the Citrini paper into a Gemini tool called NotebookLM and asked NotebookLM to create a podcast about the Citrini report. This podcast (which involves two speakers) is incredible and they do a great job of summarizing this report in a very entertaining and informative way. Click here to listen to the first podcast. (When you click this link, you will be presented with 3 possible boxes… Choose “Studio” and turn on your sound. It is about 40 minutes long.) FYI: The podcast is no less scary than the written report!
3. Finally, I asked NotebookLM to refute the Citrini report by typing in: “Using your own deep research, please rebut the Citrini Report point by point. Add any extra information you think relevant, and then create a long-form podcast as the output.” Voila...Click here. This podcast is as important as the first because it helps us think about the sequence and severity of cascading events in a different light. (Once again, select “Studio” and “The 2028 White Collar Intelligence Crisis.”) You should plan on about 40 minutes for this one, too.
OK… You know I am very careful with my recommendations. I do not have an interest in trying to persuade you to a certain view… rather, I am committed to expanding and challenging your thinking.
Within the next 10 days, skip one evening of bingeing Dutton Ranch or Your Friends and Neighbors on Netflix. Spend two hours reading and listening… I promise you will thank me later!
KJC
PS: About once or twice a year, I ask our clients to do some additional homework. The last time I did, I recommended you read The End of the World Is Just the Beginning by Peter Zeihan. This might be the most important book I have read in a long, long time. It is simply incredible! (Here is the book summary for those of you who skipped this exercise.) Better yet, read the entire book! I plan on doing a podcast and a rebuttal podcast on this book soon. I will be sending that out later.
